Billy is an Associate Professor in Macao Polytechnic Institute. He acquired a doctoral degree from the University of Hong Kong and started his career as an e-business consultant. His major clients were banks, multinational cooperation and the HKSAR government. He then switched to the academy. He administered government-funded and commercial research projects. His research interests were in economics and management. He is experienced in research design and statistical analysis but he has a great inclination to quantitative methods. It makes possible scientific conclusions for practical business implications. The course he lectures is recognized by SAS®*. He also lectured executive short course and engaged in keynote speaking for professionals in the industries.
Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.), the University of Hong Kong.
Bachelor of Engineering (B.Eng.), the University of Hong Kong.
My interests are many. Behavioral economics and monetary economics are my most recent pursuits. Yet, I have strong favors in empirical investigation. I seek truths by means of statistics or even analytics, and do not limit myself to any quantitative methods. This is my school of thoughts – quantitative management. It is an inheritance from Peter Drucker:
"If you can't measure it, you can't improve it."I even instill this idea to my students and they are strong in data mining. Well, that is where e-commerce comes into play after the millennium.
The general public use paper-based receipts in the Macao retail industry; and customer always collect stickers for various kinds of retail promotions and gifts. Losses, handling and frauds in operations are major problems for residential applications. This project proposes an electronic means for that, and with better trust and reliability. Blockchain technology is used to achieve the goals for E-receipt and E-sticker. Blockchain technology provides a decentralized and open mechanism to support next-generation Internet technologies, including anonymous online payments, remittances and other digital asset transactions. By using industrial standard development tools, the students implemented a prototype for the identified operations involved. They proved their solution concepts by programming in blockchain. Their ideas not only improve security, reduce paper use, but also automate the process of receipt-to-stickers, and make possible the transfers and the tasks much more convenient.
Supply Chain Management (SCM as Michael Porter described) refers to the activities and processes of planning, coordinating, operating, controlling and optimizing the whole supply chain system, including all the stakeholders like suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, and consumers. In it, a critical challenge is the bullwhip effect, in which demand order variances are amplified as they move upstream. By identifying the major characteristics and solution paths in the literature, a blockchain framework is proposed to explicitly solve the problems. By using industrial standard development tool, the students programmed a prototype to illustrate the solutions they proposed. It proved the concepts of solving the SCM problems by using blockchain technology with its unique features. Not only it increases efficiency just as other electronic means, it also benefits the whole supply chain by improving information sharing, the inventory policy and the demand forecast and ultimately reducing costs.
Reviews are important for all consumers nowadays. This user-generated content has got serious attentions for all marketing businesses, from simple brand management, customer acquisition or even risk management. Manual process is not scalable for the massive textual data. This project deployed multiple deep learning language models to assist their analysis on over 400,000 reviews messages in TripAdvisor. Simple as basic RNN (recurrent neural network) like LSTM (long short-term memory) and sophisticated as stat-of-the-art BERT (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers) were used with different preprocessing treatments. With those NLP techniques, they could accurately estimate the sentiment of a visit from the user comment or sharing. More, the study identified important aspects for both positive and negative reviews. It provided insights for marketing practitioners to adjust their services from the massive user reviews without sweat.
Information overloading is an issue executives are faced with in today's business settings. Tons of news are to be digested for prudent decision making every day. While time is a constraint, the fullness of information in news articles should not be discounted. Summarization should be able to help. This study deployed multiple methods for the job: clustering, transformer, BERT (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers) and GPT (Generative Pre-Training Transformer). To assess the models, the author also investigate the loss functions, with consideration on feasibility and practicality. They did a straight-forward and relatively easy solution with extractive summarization by BERT. By tailor-making a pre-trained model with clustering technique for Chinese tokenization and embedding, extractive summarization could yield very human readable messages. However, it only picked portions of the original articles and failed to effectively convey the richness of the original notions; and missing some in the making. The study turned to abstractive summarization to take full advantage of deep learning language models. Due to hardware and time limitations, only 72,000 article-summery pairs were used. The resulting model with GPT, although not perfect, was the best and satisfactory measured with multiple ROUGE scores.
E-commerce live streaming was a new key battleground at the time of their writing. The logistics behind have a lot of complications; Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) were only the front-end. Despite failures in the West, Multi-Channel Networks (MCNs) became important strategic marketing assets. MCNs managed KOLs and supported related dealings, from styling, sales platform management to product promotion contracts. For sales optimization, a strategic decision was on the influencer-platform-product mix. Tracking over 4000 KOLs, attributes on 4.3 million streaming sessions selling 4.6 million products were obtained. The students investigated the problem with thorough analyses, from basic descriptive statistics to hierarchical clustering in Python and various classification models with SAS Enterprise Miner. They found effective promotion strategies, and elaborated results with visualization of maps and word clouds.
Social media popularity skyrocketed during and after Covid-19 lockdowns in China. The cultural preferences also changed. This study investigated the changes of user sentiments based on regular comments and danmu on video sharing. The comment-rich media helped business understand their customers. The students collected over 2 billion live comments for over 86 thousand of videos before and during the pandemic (two full years of 2019-2020). While naive word counting could be misleading, as some words are naturally more frequently used, they deployed Jieba and Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) vectorization in Python as the feature extraction mean. On top of basic descriptive statistics presented with word clouds and usual charts, they used various classification models with SAS Enterprise Miner to uncover the patterns of changes. They helped promotion tactics by identifying effective and trendy words for titling, tags and keywords.
Cryptocurrencies have become one of the mainstream investment vehicles. However, notorious is their volatility. Traditional daily data unnecessarily distorted the actual trading information as a result of aggregation by time or other bins. Tick-to-tick data give the most truthful view of the market's trading information (e.g., the timestamp, the transaction type, the trading volume etc.). However, early econometric models were not designed for tick-to-tick volatility analysis upon irregular time intervals. Thus, this study aims to adopt a deep learning approach to assess the volatility measures for price prediction. New manual features were derived from the principles of close-to-close, Garman-Klass and Parkinson volatility. The cryptocurrencies under study were Cardano (ADA), Bitcoin (BTC), Dogecoin (DOGE), Polkadot (DOT), EOS, Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), Ripple (XRP). Typical models of LSTM and GRUs were used. Results show that the manual features to deal with irregular time intervals and volatility can effectively help prediction performance. Ironically, the simple close-to-close volatility generally performs the best, based on the measure of mean absolute errors.
Value at Risk (VaR) has been widely used as a measure of market risk. It is considered a prudent statistical tool to quantify possible losses of an investment asset and has become a means for risk management in the mainstream. It is particularly important for the volatile market. However, the conventional methods were unable to handle the fluctuations in the market, especially in high-frequency trading. With the development of deep learning technology and the popularity of quantitative investment strategies, this study aims to validate the effectiveness of VaR with a backtesting strategy, and hence develop an effective automatic stock trading system. The key component is built upon deep reinforcement learning. With high-frequency data on 30 blue chips traded in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the students tested the 4 major deep reinforcement learning algorithms (SAC, PPO, A2C, and DDPG). Their model validated the effectiveness of VaR and found that SAC performed the best. Backtesting results showed that their developed automatic trading system could beat the bear market by almost 3% in 5 days on February 2022.
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In the world of data analytics, there is a professional examination recognized worldwide. Some of our students headed for that and acquired that professional qualitification. They all got very good starts at the early career.
M534, School of Business, Macao Polytechnic Institute, Rua de Luís Gonzaga Gomes, Macau
Tel: (853) 8599 3312
Fax: (853) 2872 7653
Google Scholar records are more updated.
*. To, W., Yu, B., & Lee, P. (2018). How Quality Management System Components Lead to Improvement in Service Organizations: A System Practitioner Perspective. Administrative Sciences, 8(4), 73.
*. To, W.M. and Yu, T.W. (2016). Characterizing the urban temperature trend using seasonal unit root analysis: Hong Kong from 1970 to 2015, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 33(12), 1376 - 1385. (SCI, impact factor in 2016: 1.363)
*. To, W. M., Martin, E. F., & Yu, Billy T. W. (2015). Effect of management commitment to internal marketing on employee work attitude, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 45, 14 - 21. (SSCI, impact factor in 2014: 1.939)
*. Yu, Billy T.W. and To, W.M. (2013). The effect of internal information generation and dissemination on casino employee work related behaviors, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 33, 475 - 483. (SSCI, impact factor in 2013: 1.837)
*. Lee, K.C., To, W.M. and Yu, T.W. (2013). Team attributes and performance in operational service teams: An empirical taxonomy development, International Journal of Production Economics, 142(1), 51 - 60. (SCI, impact factor in 2012: 2.081)
*. Yu, T.W., To, W.M. and Lee, K.C. (2012). Quality management framework for public management decision making, Management Decision, 50(3), 420 - 438 (SSCI, impact factor in 2012: 3.787)
*. W.M. To, Peter K.C. Lee, Billy T.W. Yu, (2012) Benefits of implementing management system standards: A case study of certified companies in the Pearl River Delta, China, TQM Journal, 24(1), 17 - 28 (EI)
*. Yu, T.W. and To, W.M. (2011). The Importance of Input control to work performance under the agency theory framework, International Journal of Human Resource Management, 22(14), 2874 - 91. (SSCI, impact factor in 2011: 1.043)
*. To, W.M., Lee, K.C. and Yu, T.W. (2011). ISO9001:2000 Implementation in the Public Sector: A Survey in Macao SAR, TQM Journal, 23(1), 59 - 72. (EI)
*. Lee, K.C., To, W.M. and Yu, T.W. (2009). The Implementation and Performance Outcomes of ISO 9000 in Service Organizations: an Empirical Taxonomy Development, International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, 26(7), 646 - 662 (INSPEC).
*. Yu, T.W. and To, W.M. (2008). Effects of Control Mechanisms on Positive Organizational Change, Journal of Organizational Change Management, 21(3), 385 - 404. (SSCI, impact factor in 2008: 0.520)
*. W.M. To, T.W. Yu, T.M. Lai, S.P. Li (2007) Characterization of commercial clothes dryers based on energy-efficiency analysis, International Journal of Clothing Science and Technology, 19(5), 277 - 290. (SCI, impact factor in 2007: 0.47)
*. Wong, Ngan Hong and Yu, Tat Wai (2006) A historical Perspective on Modern Casino Management, Journal of Macau Studies, 36, 86 - 91.